Beyond ISS: Vast’s Haven-1 Leads the Charge in the Commercial LEO Race Amid China Shadow
LONG BEACH, Calif. (AP) — Vast plans to launch Haven-1, billed as the world’s first commercial space station, later this year via a SpaceX Dragon capsule and Falcon 9 rocket, company officials said. An uncrewed test will precede a four-person crewed mission about six weeks later for a 10-day shakedown. NASA is funding such commercial low Earth orbit destinations to replace the International Space Station, set for deorbit after 2030.
The push comes as the ISS nears its scheduled end after more than 25 years of operation. NASA plans a destructive re-entry into the Pacific Ocean, where smaller components will burn up and larger ones will splash down. Without a U.S.-led successor, China’s Tiangong station — crewed since 2021 — could become the sole permanent orbital outpost, shifting strategic dominance, according to an Aerospace Global News analysis.
Vast is advancing its project with a new 189,000-square-foot headquarters in Long Beach, dubbed “Space Beach,” company officials announced this month. Former NASA astronaut Andrew Feustel serves as Vast’s lead astronaut. Haven-1 will accommodate four astronauts for up to 30 days initially, incorporating lessons from the ISS such as a communal dining module, Feustel said in a Sky News interview.
In 2021, NASA awarded $415.6 million to developers including Axiom Space, Blue Origin with Sierra Space for Orbital Reef, and Nanoracks with Voyager Space for Starlab, according to IEEE Spectrum. These commercial stations aim for operational readiness by the early 2030s, hosting crews and research at lower costs, NASA officials said. Vast positions Haven-1 for an uncrewed launch this year, potentially late 2024 or early 2025, followed by the crewed test, sources said.
Geopolitical tensions heighten the stakes. The ISS, operational since 1998 and fully assembled in 2011, has hosted continuous human presence since November 2000. Agencies from the U.S., Europe, Japan, Canada and Russia jointly built it, but it now faces aging issues like leaks and maintenance needs, NASA reported. Recent U.S.-Russia strains surfaced in the Crew-12 cosmonaut swap in December 2024, according to sources.
China’s Tiangong, operational since 2021, hosts crews and conducts research. “Without a US replacement ready in time, China’s Tiangong space station could soon become the world’s only permanently inhabited orbital outpost, a symbolic and strategic shift,” Aerospace Global News stated.
Commercial models rely on revenue from astronaut seats, tourism and research payloads, experts said. This approach raises concerns about a two-tier access system favoring wealthy clients initially. “In principle, commercial space stations could increase the number of flight opportunities and, over time, reduce prices for a wider range of users... That raises the possibility of a two-tier pattern of access,” said Dr. Dimitrios Stroikos, head of the Space Policy Project at LSE IDEAS, in a Sky News report.
Vast officials emphasize normalizing space access. “It’s not to say that it will ever be cheap. But I do believe that the more that we do this, the more we normalise space access, just like we have with automobiles and air transportation,” Feustel told Sky News.
The ISS hosts seven astronauts long-term, up to 13 during handovers, NASA said. Commercial stations like Haven-1 start smaller but plan modular expansion for microgravity research, tourism and private missions. NASA will act as an anchor tenant in this shift from government-owned to private operations, officials said.
The ISS has enabled breakthroughs in medicine, materials and biology. Its end will allow NASA to focus on Moon and Mars missions under the Artemis program, freeing orbital slots for commercial users, agency officials said.
Competitors include Axiom, which is developing modules to dock with the ISS before standalone operation, sources said. Blue Origin and Sierra Space are working on Orbital Reef, while Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin contribute indirectly. Older sources from 2021 highlighted Axiom and Blue Origin as frontrunners, but recent developments focus on Vast’s progress, according to multiple reports.
The transition ensures uninterrupted U.S. human spaceflight post-2030, preserving research continuity and national security, experts said. It avoids reliance on Tiangong for Western astronauts. Broader trends point to a low Earth orbit economy boom, with projections of $10 billion by 2030 in research, manufacturing and tourism, according to industry analyses.
Deorbit details involve atmospheric burn-up at temperatures exceeding 1,800 degrees Celsius, NASA explained. The process will end the ISS’s role, which began with continuous habitation nearly 25 years ago as of late 2024.
Consensus holds that commercial competition will sustain U.S. presence in low Earth orbit, drive down costs long-term and parallel aviation’s democratization, sources said. No major contradictions appear across reports, though timelines remain vague without confirmed launch dates.
Vast is nearing completion of its production campus, announced this month, company officials said. Feustel’s interview circulated on LinkedIn about three weeks ago, sources noted. NASA-Roscosmos tensions persist, evident in recent crew changes, according to reports.
The race reflects U.S.-China rivalry, echoing Apollo-era competition, analysts said. Commercial firms like SpaceX provide launch services, enabling the shift. Haven-1’s design emphasizes scalability for future growth, Vast officials said.
